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Can This Program Prevent Violence?
So far this year there are 58 homicides, close to the same level of killing as last year, when there were 71 by the same date. Add the rising tide of armed robberies and other serious crimes, not to mention sideshows and boom cars, and one can understand why Oakland residents are becoming more skeptical about whether so-called "violence prevention programs" achieve much.
The skepticism has even caused councilmember Jean Quan to respond. She abhors serious debate, ignoring controversy whenever she can. However, she now admits, "Recently some of our neighborhood listserv's have asked questions about Violence Prevention Programs, especially those funded by Measure Y." (Quan newsletter, July 7, 2007).
So Quan announces, "We are going to run profiles of some the of the Measure Y Prevention programs as they come to their first year evaluations." She begins with the Pathways to Change program. Here is what Quan offered, in full:
Pathways To Change: Typically two-thirds or more of the youth who become involved with juvenile court become repeat offenders within a year to 18 months. This intense case management program has cut the recidivism rate in about half.
Ricardo (name changed), 17, was referred to Pathways to Change in the Spring of 2006 for a property crime. This was Ricardo's third referral to Alameda County's Probation Department. When Ricardo's Pathways to Change case manager, Jorge Garcia, completed his assessment of Ricardo and his family, he discovered disturbing but not uncommon dynamics. Ricardo's mother is a single parent who works two jobs to support three of her four children. Ricardo and his two younger siblings have no relationship with their father and Ricardo's mother cannot provide the three children with substantial supervision because of her intense work schedule. Ricardo lives in a neighborhood where gang members often congregate in front of his apartment building.
Immediately, Jorge got Ricardo involved in community-based activities that gave Ricardo a sense of accomplishment and built his vocational skills. Jorge advocated in court on Ricardo's behalf to have him assessed by The Regional Center to determine if he were eligible and appropriate for their case management services. He also pressed school administrators to assess Ricardo for an Individualized Education Plan (IEP). As a result of months of work with Ricardo, his family, The Regional Center, Probation and the Oakland Unified, Ricardo will have full case management services from The Regional Center until 2009 and is enrolled in Oakland Technical High School, where he will receive additional educational assistance based on his IEP. Finally, he receives mental health counseling, based on his specific needs. His story is a success because he is finally receiving the support for issues that he has been facing long before his involvement in the juvenile justice system. Without question, Ricardo would not have received this support without Jorge's advocacy. Measure Y supports Pathways and its collaboration with different system partners to ensure support for young people in Oakland.
Notice that councilmember Quan gives us no overall numbers about the program. We found a few in City reports. Pathways to Change, a diversion program for repeat juvenile offenders on probation, served 140 youth last fiscal year. The City is giving the Mentoring Center two grants totaling $691,214 to run Pathways.
Recidivism rates are estimated as high as 80% over a three-year period. Quan says Pathways to Change has reduced the rate "about half." It's actually less than 45 percent. Let's apply that percentage to the 140 repeat offenders, crediting Pathways to Change for ending ended the criminal careers of 51 of the 140; another 61 still rob, burglarize, or whatever; while 28 gave it up in any case.
A bit of arithmetic
($691,214 / 51 = $13,553) shows that every success story like "Ricardo" costs on average more than $13,500. If $13,500 of attention convinced him to give up crime for good, that's great. But is this a viable overall strategy for Oakland taxpayers? Pathways to Change worked with only 140 youth. Oakland has thousands more in similar situations.
Incidentally, a City-issued brochure for the public, attempting to respond to growing discontent over Measure Y, says that "Pathways to Change's average cost per youth is $5,000." If you divide the money by all 140 youth, that is the figure you get. But a majority of those youth continue in crime according to recidivism results issued by the program itself. Obviously, the proper measurement is to figure the cost per success.
A close reading of the story provided by councilmember Quan shows a troubling additional burden. Caseworker Garcia arranged mental health counseling for Ricardo. Unless a surplus of such counselors exists, Garcia engaged in a game of musical chairs: when he obtained counseling for Ricardo, someone else did not get it. At the least, the unstated cost of the counseling should be added to the $13,500.
The Big Picture
Blatant failures of City-funded social programs have outraged Oakland residents, such as the $185,000 embezzlement at PUEBLO and the promotion of sideshow culture and gutter rappers at Youth UpRising, recipient of more than $476,000 this year from the City. We can be grateful that Pathways to Change is not outright criminal nor blatantly counterproductive. Still, the model of patchwork, often uncoordinated violence prevention programs cannot work. They will never give us peaceful neighborhoods.
Residents have some wise observations about the whole situation:
"Oakland is afloat with children who didn't get their fair share. We gave up on them as a city. But we don't make amends for this failure as leaders, citizens, teachers, parents and role models by underwriting programs with poor fiduciary oversight, ill defined objectives and no historical track record; or programs that cozy up to graffiti, music with misogynist/homophobic/racist lyrics, sideshows and ass-crack-belly-fat dress codes. We make amends by giving kids programs with discipline and substance that prepare them for the rigor of real life and careers." (Kevin, email, July 8, 2007)
"Police on the street and well-paying technical jobs will make a much bigger difference for Oakland and the East Bay than well-intentioned social programs that ultimately accomplish very little." (Elise, email list, July 8, 2007)
Much of Oakland's money for violence prevention programs comes from Measure Y. As Pathways to Change illustrates, we cannot expect real improvement from the programs, even though they consume about 40 percent of the Measure Y tax revenues. In addition, Measure Y was supposed to expand the police force, but we have fewer police today than when Measure Y passed. Councilmembers like Quan see too much political advantage from backing social programs; their deeds show that they do not really care about public safety.
Above, we printed councilmember Quan's puff story for Pathways for Change, which she published in her weekly newsletter. We invite her to publish this reply in her newsletter; that would show Quan really wants constituents to get an informative exchange.
Our main job is getting the police department to at least 1,100 officers, up from today's 700-some. More officers provide more deterrence by their presence on the streets. More officers give us faster response time when we call for help. More officers have time to work on neighborhood problem spots.
Furthermore, as we begin to reclaim our streets from the thug culture, parole and probation officers (mostly working for the County, not the City) will be more effective. When they suggest school, job and counseling programs, offenders will see that if they go back to crime, their chances of success at it are less.
– July 9, 2007; updated Aug. 10
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