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Numerical Gobbledygook About Police Understaffing

"How many police officers have actually been added to OPD since Measure Y?"

Councilmember Quan posed that question in her Aug. 11 newsletter to constituents. Measure Y is the tax package passed in Nov. 2004 on a promise of at least 802 police. Here is Quan's answer:

Measure Y passed in fall 2004, revenues were collected in fall 2005. OPD had 716 officers. Since its passage 283 people have entered the 12 different police academies, 216 graduated. 63 additional recruits are now in two police academy classes. However, in the same period 117 officers have retired or left. OPD anticipates 22 officers will be graduating from the 161st Police Academy at the end of August; 7 are slated to be allocated to Measure Y Community Policing slots bringing the total number of public safety officers (PSO) to 37 of the 57 police beats throughout the city. The remaining beats are covered part-time by other officers. If the training and retirement rates remain at current levels, we should be close to filling the 802 budgeted positions in the first part of next year. There are currently about 2,000 vacant law enforcement positions in northern California.

Did you get an answer out of that cascade of numbers? We could not discern a coherent presentation, but we did notice several falsehoods and misrepresentations:

  • "Revenues were collected in fall 2005."

    The City began collecting the parking surcharge on Jan. 1, 2005. Property taxes began with the fiscal year that started on July 1, 2005, and the revenues were in the City budget.

  • "OPD had 716 officers."

    The councilmember attempts to establish a low baseline. In fact, Oakland had 734 police when the council wrote Measure Y in July 2004. It is true that the council kept a hiring freeze in effect until after the balloting on Measure Y. By Jan. 2005, Oakland had only 704 officers, and the tally fell to 683 a year later.

  • "216 graduated. ... However, in the same period 117 officers have retired or left."

    Councilmember Quan implies that OPD has achieved a net gain of 99 officers (216 – 117 = 99). Incidentally, councilmember Kernighan peddled the same gobbledygook on July 10 to angry residents of Maxwell Park at the council's public safety committee. The truth is that as of Aug. 3, 2007 Oakland had 719 officers. We have had fewer police than when the council wrote Measure Y for every day of the last three years. (See the history here.)

  • "We should be close to filling the 802 budgeted positions in the first part of next year."

    What a weasel-worded statement! "Close to" 802 officers. Does that mean 799? 769? The "first part of next year" – does that mean Feb. 1? June 30?

    By any reading, councilmember Quan has gone out on a limb. We'll return to her words later, because we are sadly certain that Oakland will not reach and stay near 802 officers in 2008.

Discontent with Measure Y and its taxes is high because Oakland residents see that peace and safety are no nearer to reality. Discontent is high because councilmember Quan and other City officials insisted during the Measure Y campaign that doubters were wrong, that of course the City would provide 802 police.

Discontent is high because the police are not there, but Quan and colleagues are shoveling the money allotted in the measure for violence prevention programs out the door, with no substantial results on the blood-strewn streets.

Apart from the fraud known as Measure Y, however, Oakland needs at least 1,100 officers. Councilmember Quan's numerical contortions merely show that we still need to find that first councilmember who will make public safety the first job of city government.

– Aug. 12, 2007


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